Karnataka elections are the talk of the town. Even Tollywood celebrities are travelling to Karnataka to promote the parties they like. Now, pre-poll surveys show that Congress will get a slight lead in Karnataka. In the history of the last three and a half decades, no ruling party has regained the reins of the state. While the BJP is trying to change history, the Congress is adamant about taking power and continuing the tradition. In the pre-poll survey conducted by People's Pulse in Karnataka, the Congress seems to have a slight lead.
Considering the views of women and men and all age groups, Congress is ahead of other parties in all areas, mainly development, welfare, social issues, and the Chief Minister's candidature. It is ahead of its main rival, the BJP, in all regions except coastal Karnataka.
The main opposition Congress is likely to get a narrow majority by getting more than 100 seats. The BJP may be limited to fewer than 100 seats. At the same time, JD (S) will continue to dominate the positions it holds.
According to the survey, the Congress party is likely to get 105–117 seats, the BJP 81–93 seats, the JD(S) 24-29 seats, and others 1-3 seats.
Congress, which secured 38.14 percent of the vote in 2018, is likely to get 41.4 percent. The ruling BJP, which secured 36.35 percent of the votes in 2018, can now get 36 percent of the votes with a slight loss of 0.3 percent. JD (S), which played the role of kingmaker in 2018, now has a chance of getting 16 percent of the vote. This is 2.3 percent less than 2018.
Congress, which got 38.14 percent of the vote in 2018, is likely to get 41.4 percent. The ruling BJP, which got 36.35 percent of the votes in 2018, can now get 36 percent of the votes with a slight loss of 0.3 percent. JD (S), which played the role of kingmaker in 2018, is now likely to get 16 percent of the vote. This is 2.3 percent less than 2018.
In any given survey, there is a possibility of a difference of plus or minus two percent.
The survey was conducted from December 2022 to May 5, 2023, under the leadership of R. Dileesh Reddy, director of People's Pulse Research.
The survey was conducted in 56 assembly constituencies selected through 'Probability Professional Methodology' (PPS) method. Three polling stations were selected in each constituency.
In Karnataka, People's Pulse conducted the first pre-poll survey from December 22nd to December 31st, 2022, while the second pre-poll survey was conducted from March 25th to April 10th, 2023. The last pre-poll survey was conducted from May 1 to May 5, 2023.
Representatives of Draw People's Pulse visited all the constituencies in six regions of the state from April 25 to May 5 for the prepoll survey to gauge voter sentiment against the major parties.
When the voters were asked for their opinion on whom they preferred as the chief minister, 42 percent of the people stood in favour of former chief minister Siddaramaiah. Current Chief Minister Baswaraj Bomme was preferred by 24 percent, former Chief Minister Kumaraswamy by 17 percent, former CM B. Yeddyurappa by 14 percent, and D. K. Shivakumar by 3 percent.
When asked which party is better for the development of Karnataka state, 46 percent gave preference to the Congress, 34 percent to the BJP, and 14 percent to the JD(S).
When asked if they would give another chance to the BJP government, 53 percent said no, 41 percent said they would give it, and six percent could not tell.
Some key details from the survey:
Unemployment: Although unemployment is a prominent issue among the youth, they are socially isolated. It is noteworthy here that while Lingayat, Maratha, and ST Nayak youth are on the side of the BJP, Muslims and ST (right) youth are on the side of Congress, and Vokkalinga youth are supporting JD(S).
Corruption: Congress is raising the issue of corruption in elections in a big way. While raising the issue of "140% Commission Sarkar" in the state, voters are not giving preference to elections based on the issue of corruption.
Agricultural aspects: Farmers are dissatisfied with the performance of the government on minimum support prices for crops and compensation for crop damage. Dissatisfied with what the BJP has not done for them, they may vote in support of the Congress and JD(S).
Kannada honour: While Kannada honour is influential in South Karnataka, it is not in North Karnataka. But may not affect the voting.
Congress promises: The effect of Congress promises in elections is visible. Guarantees of Grihalakshmi, Grihalothi, Anna Bhagya, Yuva Nidhi, and free bus service for women have had a good effect on the poor, women, and rural people.
